Trading Strategy Using Candlestick Formation

Trading Strategy Using High Close Doji

In this article I want to share with you in detail this one specific trade setup and what it takes to confirm the buy signal or what’s known as a trigger to execute a trade.

This is the pattern I call the High Close Doji or the HCD method. It has dimensions of specific criteria that need to fall in place, therefore helping to eliminate and filter out false signals. It is a simple and basic approach that is a high probability winning strategy.

This setup may help you improve your trading performance and allow you to develop a consistent winning trading strategy. Consider this your own personal trading system that is based off of proven and powerful techniques. For a moment I want you to envision the concept of epoxy glue, it requires two compounds. Separately they are not very reliable or in fact a very strong bonding substance. However, when combined, a chemical reaction occurs and forms an amazingly strong and powerful bond.

 Using the methods of Candlesticks with Pivot Points can give you that same result if you know what to look for. The implementation of longer term analysis using Pivot Points will give a trader a fantastic means in which to anticipate a point from where a trend change could occur, thus helping one to not only prepare but to act on a trade opportunity.

Doji Trading setup:

One can implement this set-up using different time frames besides daily analysis. You can include weekly and even monthly Pivot Point calculations. Take for instance the Weekly numbers. They are compiled from the previous weeks High, Low and Close. This method of analysis after calculating the numbers will alert you well in advance of a potential Support and or Resistance level. If you have your calculations figured out on the close of business on a Friday then you are prepared before the weekend starts and now have a general guide of what may be the next weeks potential High, Low or both.

In the setup process you heighten your awareness to enter in a long or short position against predefined levels and wait for the trigger or market signal at those levels.

It can not only help you define or identify the target area to enter but also what you wish to establish as your risk objective.  Another event that occurs with this setup process is you now can “set up” your orders to buy on your trading platform with the selected contract amounts. In other words, prearrange the commands on the electronic order ticket. Now all we need is confirmation so you can pull the trigger or click the mouse to establish an entry in the market and establish a position.

The chart below magnifies what you are looking for, notice once the market closes above the Doji’s high we see an immediate reaction of positive momentum and a continuation of higher prices.

 















That is what we are focusing on especially after a decline in price and when the market approaches a predetermined support level based off of the Pivot Point Calculations.

 Doji Trading rules and setup:

 1.When the market approaches a key Pivot Point, buy on the close or on the next open once a new closing high is made above the previous bullish reversal candle pattern especially a Doji formation.

 2.Place your initial risk management stop below the low of the lowest low point of the bullish candle pattern. This can be on a Manual Stop Close Only basis.

 3.Exit the trade on the close or the first open of a candle that makes a lower closing low after a prolonged uptrend.

 4.One can use a “Filter” or back-up process to confirm the buy signal against a major Pivot Point number such as a bullish convergence stochastic pattern.

 A bullish Candle pattern can be a Harami, Harami Doji Cross, Bullish Piercing Pattern, A Bullish Engulfing Pattern or my favorite, but in most cases we want to act on a High Close Doji pattern. This pattern works for most markets including Stocks, Forex and Futures. This is a high probability intraday trading pattern however it works very well for position trading. There is a higher frequency of patterns that develop for intraday trading.

 This pattern develops on various time periods, however I do not use less than a 5 minute time period. My favorite day trading time frame is using both the 5 and the 15 minute period. This helps me to catch trend runs as they occur in the market.

 The example below is the CBOT electronic Gold contract taken from September 28th 2005. The first dimension we need is the Pivot Point calculations. So we take the prior days High, Low and Close and applying the formula we derive at 466.50 as the first Support level known as S-1. Notice the price action at the support level. The Doji Forms at the S-1 and two times periods later, an engulfing green candle forms, which signifies the market closed above the open. Notice that it also closes above the Doji’s high.

 I want to illustrate the flow of the market price action, notice we never see, until the end of the trading session, prices make a lower closing low. The sequence of events that transpire is higher highs, higher lows, and higher closing highs as defined by green candles, all the way up just past the daily projected pivot Point R-1 of 472.50. This is a great example of a HCD trigger that results in a 6.00 dollar gain in Gold.

 In case you were wondering if this set-up can be applied to Forex markets the answer is yes. This next chart is a spot FX British Pound from September 30th. If you apply the Pivot calculations derived from the prior days data you will have a predetermined support of 1.7568. Notice how the market bounces around and then the Doji forms. The trigger to buy initiates once the Green candle closes above the Doji high and the same sequence of events takes place, higher highs, higher lows and a continuation of higher closing highs all the way up until we hit resistance at the R-1 of 1.7680. That equates to nearly an 80 PIP or point gain.

This next example is the CBOT Mini-Dow contract, in this example notice how the Doji forms right on the Pivot Point Support Line. Remember that Dojis form more often than not at Pivot Point Support or Resistance levels. Here the candle right after the Doji not only closes above the doji’s high but see how it entirely engulfs the real bodies of the prior two candles of the Doji as well. That helps signal the power behind the reversal formation. As you can see we have a great run in the market testing beyond the R-2 number thus giving nearly a 100 point gain for the trading session.

This is a pattern that should show an imediate positive change as the reversal takes hold. Also notice that we see more green candles develop, which reflects the market closing above the open, thus confirming buyers dominating the market with better bullish momentum.

The rules also state that we can use confirming indicators.  In the chart below we have three indicators, my favorite being Fast Stochastics, then MACD and CCI. As you can see Stochastics indicates a bullish convergence signal, validating that prices were near an exhaustion phase and ready to reverse, as the Doji formed.

The HCD trigger would have you long at the close or the open of the next candle near 10485. However, notice the MACD triggers late and would initiate a position near 10520.

The trigger in the MACD would be verified from the moving average crossover as well as the zero line crossover method. Notice how MACD does not form a Bullish Convergence either.

No matter which indicator you are comfortable in using, when investors first discover Pivot Points, most often their first impression is one of pure amazement.  Mainly due to its ability to predict what a specific time frames overhead resistance or support might be. Moreover, more times than not the High, Low or even both are right on target as the exact number for that given session. Make no mistake Pivot Point analysis is impressive. However, its real power and value does not end there. Pivot Point Analysis deals with pin pointing not only price but in a specific time period.

It is what I consider the “Right Side” of the chart indicator. It also gives you a method for identifying the trend and how to determine the typical price or fair value of a given time frame. After all, that is what the actual Pivot Point number is. If prices deviate too far from that point the outer calculation numbers can help you determine at what point a market is most likely to turn. One can also use this feature of the actual Pivot Point to develop a moving average system. But when traders combine these calculations with the visual aid of certain candle patterns, it can give you superior guidance as to when and where to enter and exit positions. Traders who want every edge in their approach for the highest probability of success will benefit from this simple but yet time tested method.

The amazing fact is this pattern works equally well in market declines, therefore I call it a Low Close Doji set-up. When I use pivot point analysis what I want to do is see how the market behaves at or near a pivot point target number. I also include a special moving average approach which is taught in my trading course that illustrates a conditional change in the market. Once we identify that the current market price is turning direction we can establish a trading position as prices close below a Doji low, a moving average cross over occurs and prices close below both moving average values. I use a combination of a specific moving average of the pivot point combined with a simple moving average. I stay with the initial position until those particular conditions change. In bearish conditions I look for a series of events such as lower lows, lower highs and lower closing lows to indicate a bearish trend. Once the market conditions change and we have a series of opposite events occur I stay on the short side of the market.

In the chart above we have a Low Close Doji sell signal triggered at the pivot Point, prices close below both moving average values and the moving averages cross signaling confirmation that a trend change has occurred.  The profit target is the first Pivot Point support target level.

In Conclusion, Doji candlestick formations can be a profitable signal to take during a market indecisions of a directions.

Volatility Breakout Systems for Stock Day Trading

Volatility Breakout Systems for Stock Day Trading

Breakout systems can actually be considered another form of swing trading, (which is a style of short term trading designed to capture the next immediate move). In other words, the trader is not concerned with any long term forecast or analysis, only the immediate price action.

Volatility breakout systems are based on the premise that if the market moves a certain percentage from a previous price level, the odds favor some continuation of the move. This continuation might only last one day, or go just a little bit beyond the original entry price, but this is still enough of a profit to play for. A trader must be satisfied with whatever the market is willing to give.

With a breakout system, a trade is always taken in the direction that the market is moving at the time. It is usually entered via a buy or sell stop. The bit of continuation that we are playing for is based on the principle that momentum tends to precede price. There is also another principle of price behavior that is at work to create trading opportunities. That is, the market tends to alternate between a period of equilibrium (balance between the supply and demand forces) and a state of disequilibrium. This imbalance between supply and demand causes “range expansion”, (the market seeking a new level), and this is what causes us to enter a trade.

There are several ways to create short-term volatility breakout systems. I have found that different types of systems based on range expansion test out quite similarly. Therefore, whichever method you choose should be a matter for your own personal preference.

In designing a system, one can choose to place an entry stop off either the opening price or the previous day’s closing price. This entry stop can be a function of the previous day’s range or a percentage of the previous 2.10-day range, etc. Mechanical exits can range from using a fixed objective level to using a time function such as the next day’s open or close. Most of these systems function best when a very wide stop is used.

Another way of trading the breakout mode is by using “channel breakouts” which is simply buying the highest high of the last seven days in the case of a 7-period channel or the highest high of the last 2 days in the case of a 2-period channel breakout. In the case of an inside day breakout pattern where one buys the high or sells the low of the previous bar, a 1-period channel breakout is actually being used for the trigger. The most famous long-term breakout system adapted by Richard Dennis for training the “Turtles” was the 4-week channel breakout originally designed by Richard Donchian. Other breakout systems can be based on chart patterns , trendline breaks, breakouts above or below a band or envelope of prices, or variations of simple range expansion functions.

Training Benefits for the Novice Trader

Derived from Trading a Volatility Breakout System:

Trading a short-term breakout system can be one of the best exercises to improve your trading.

First, it teaches you to do things that are hard to do – buying high or selling low in a fast moving market! For most people, this feels quite unnatural!

Second, it always provides a defined money management stop once a trade is entered. Not adhering to a defined money management stop is the most common cause of failure among traders.

Third, it teaches a trader the importance of follow-through once a trade is entered, as most breakout systems perform best when the trade is held overnight.

Last, it provides a great means for traders to improve their execution skills. Most volatility breakout systems are fairly active compared to a long-term trend following system. A trader can gain skill in placing orders in a diverse number of markets. Having a mechanically defined entry point is sometimes just the thing needed to overcome a trader’s fear of pulling the trigger. The order is placed ahead of time and the market then automatically pulls the trader into a trade if the stop level is hit.

Even if a person prefers to ultimately enter orders using discretion, trading a mechanical volatility breakout system can still be an invaluable exercise. It should at least increase a trader’s awareness of certain types of price behavior in the marketplace, especially if one is conditioned to entering on counter-trend retracement patterns. It can’t but help impress upon one the power of a true trend day.

Pros and Cons of Trading a Breakout System:

Like most systems, volatility breakout systems will clean up in volatile or runaway markets but tend to thrash when conditions get choppy or volume dries up. I believe they are still among the most profitable type of system to trade, and I also feel they will continue to be profitable in the long run. They are “durable” and “robust”, though they tend to deteriorate when too large of an order is placed (i.e., greater than 50 contracts). However, so that you do not get the impression that there is a Holy Grail of systems, the following considerations should be kept in mind:

Entries can be nerve-racking, especially when the market is in a runaway mode. The best breakouts won’t give you retracements to enter on. You are either on board or you are not! If you conceptualize that the best breakouts turn into trend days, and are most likely to close on the high or low for the day, then it is not so difficult to enter. Usually it is best to have a buy/sell stop already resting in the marketplace.

Sometimes a market gaps open outside your initial entry level. These often turn into the best trades. They can also turn into the most aggravating whipsaws. Big gaps test out that one should still take the trade, but they will definitely add more volatility to your bottom line. If your trade gets stopped out and an new signal is given in the opposite direction, this reversing trade usually more than makes up for the first loss.

Whipsaws are a drag but they are also inevitable when trading a breakout system. Many times I have bought the highs and sold the lows. It takes a great deal of “confidence in the numbers” to trade this type of system. System testing should always be done for a minimum of 3 years, preferably 10. Be sure to then examine out of sample data to see how the system performed.

On balance, a volatility breakout system can be traded on most all markets. However, a market might be very profitable one year and yet perform mediocre at best the next. A portfolio of 10 to 12 markets seems to work well. The problem with trying to trade too many markets at once is that it can become quite difficult to keep up with the activity level if your parameters are fairly sensitive. Many times in systems development, people overlook what one person can realistically manage.

Enhancing a Basic Volatility Breakout System:

Adding filters can sometimes create further enhancements. Examples of types of filters include: indicators to determine whether or not a market is in a trending condition, seasonality, days of the week, or degree of volatility contraction already present in the market. Periods of low volatility in the market can be defined by a contraction in true range, a low ADX, or a statistical indicator such as a low historical volatility ratio or a low standard deviation.

A system then might look something like this:

Initial volatility condition = true

Buy or Sell on a stop based on the current bar’s open, plus or minus a percentage of the previous day’s range.

Initial Risk management stops once a trade is entered.

Exit strategy.

Types of variables which can be used in a simple range expansion breakout system:

Period – is the breakout based on a function of the previous day or the previous 10-day period, for example?

Range – does it use the average range for that period or the largest, smallest, or total range?

Percentage – what percentage of the range is used? It is possible, for example, to use 120% of the previous 3-days’ total range.

Base – is the range function added to the previous day’s close or the current day’s open. This function may also be added to the high or low of the previous bar or a previous period such as the last 10 days.

As a general rule of thumb, the greater the percentage factor used, the greater the percentage of winning trades will be. However, the overall system may be less profitable because fewer trades are taken.

Once again, an example of an initial condition might be: Enter a trade only on a day following the narrowest range of the last 7 days. Or, take a trade only if the market has made a new 20-day high or low within the last five trading days. Whenever you add a filter to a system, be sure to compare the results to a baseline and examine the difference in activity level.

EXIT STRATEGIES:

Time based (2nd day’s close, 1st day’s opening)

First profitable opening (Larry Williams)

Target or objective level (1 average true range, previous day’s high/low)

Trailing stop (displaced moving average, parabolic, 2-day high/low)

RISK:

Controllable Risk – the amount of risk which can be predetermined and defined by a money management stop.

Types of money management stops:

fixed dollar amount

function of average true range

price level (i.e., bar high/low)

Uncontrollable Risk:

Overnight exposure (close to open risk). You cannot exit a position when the market is not trading. Thus, you are subject to adverse gaps, which can be exaggerated by news or events.

Slippage risk. Fast market conditions or thin, volatile markets often cause a trader to get filled at prices much worse than expected.

In general, the numbers behind most systems are very dependent upon capturing a few good trades. You can’t afford to miss the one good trade that can make your month.

Here are some tips for trading this or any other system:

Gain confidence by first trading a system on paper.

Make sure you can successfully trade a system mechanically before attempting to add any discretion.

Track your actual performance against the mechanical system at the end of each day, rating your success by whether you can match the system’s performance.

Monitor performance over an adequate sample, perhaps 100 trades or a set number of weeks. Do not let a down week or trade deter you.

Manage the exits rather than filter the entries. It is impossible to tell in advance which trades will be the good ones. The one entry skipped might be the BIG ONE, and one can’t afford to miss it. Managing the exit means two things: The first, learn when it’s okay to let that occasional great trade run an extra hour or two before getting out; the second (which really depends on one’s skill level), learn to recognize a bit sooner when a trade is not working and exit just before the stop is hit.

All systems display subtle nuances and insights into the market’s  behavior over time.

Keep a notebook of your observations and patterns you notice. In this way you truly “make the system your own”.

Never be concerned about how many other people are trading systems. If slippage seems excessive, it often suggests a significant breakout from a triangle or period of congestion. Remember: Something had to drive the market far enough to penetrate the breakout point in the first place!

Simple Stock Picking Strategies for the New Investor

Like most people, I was looking for a stock selection system that would help me identify multi-bagger stocks. That is, stocks that can double in price in a short period of time.

After a lot of research and browsing on the web, I finally found a system that has given me very good returns. Of course, this system is not unbeatable. I am also sure finance experts have come up with better strategies than the one I follow.

What I needed, though, was an easy and simple to understand method of stock picking. This is what I follow:

The strategy is known as CANSLIM.

CANSLIM is a stock investment strategy based on a study of 500 of the stock market winners. It dates back to 1953 and is described in the book How to Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System In Good Times or Bad by William J O'Neil.

What is CANSILM?

Each letter in CANSLIM stands for common characteristics that are found in the greatest stock market leaders over the past 50 years.

C: Current earnings per share

It tells you how much profit the company has made for each share given to its shareholders. As per this strategy, earnings per share should at least increase by 15-18 per cent every year.

A: Annual earnings

That is, the net profit made by a company. This should have increased by 20-25 per cent or more consistently for the last five years. Consistency of earnings are equally important when you look at the past earnings record

N: New management

The company should either be under new management, have a new product or have a new service. What we are trying to see is whether the company is embarking on newer product which will enable the company to grow the revenue and profit growth.

S: Shares of common stock outstanding

As far as possible, this figure should remain small. It tells you how many shares a company has issued to investors like you. If this figure is small, the earnings per share discussed above increases. One can get this number after a look at the equity capital in the balance sheet.

L: Leadership

The company should be a leader in its industry, or at least in the top three positions in the sector/ industry/ segment it operates in.

I: Institutional sponsorship

Look at the mutual funds that are buying this particular stock or holding this stock for a sufficiently longer period. If well performing mutual funds are holding your stock/s, then your chances of making money are good.

M: Market trend.

In a falling market, even the best stock will not be able to perform. Try and enter a upward market. That is, buy a particular stock when the share market is moving up. However, care must be the watchword when the share markets don't do too well. Always remember this – “The Trend is Your Friend, Don’t go against the Trend”

CANSLIM or not, always tread with caution

The strategy is one that strongly encourages cutting all losses at no more than 8 per cent or 10 per cent below the buy point, with no exceptions. This will help you minimise losses and preserve gains.

The book says buying stocks from solid blue chip companies should generally lessen chances of having to cut losses, since a strong company will usually shoot up in a bull market (when the stock market .

CANSLIM strategy is not momentum investing; the system identifies companies with strong fundamentals, big sales and earnings increases which is a result of unique new products or services.

Hope it makes your investing experience much more easier. With all the important information required to succeed using the CANSLIM method very easily available on the Net, I don't need any sophisticated system to find good stocks.

What is your Risk tolerance Level?

Each individual has a risk tolerance that should not be ignored. Any good stock broker or financial planner knows this, and they should make the effort to help you determine what your risk tolerance is. Then, they should work with you to find investments that do not exceed your risk tolerance.
Determining one's risk tolerance involves several different things. First, you need to know how much money you have to invest, and what your investment and financial goals are.

For instance, if you plan to retire in ten years, and you've not saved a single penny towards that end, you need to have a high risk tolerance  because you will need to do some aggressive and risky  investing in order to reach your financial goal.

On the other side of the coin, if you are in your early twenties and you want to start investing for your retirement, your risk tolerance will be low. You can afford to watch your money grow slowly over time.
Realize of course, that your need for a high risk tolerance or your need for a low risk tolerance really has no bearing on how you feel about risk. Again, there is a lot in determining your tolerance.
For instance, if you invested in the stock market and you watched the movement of that stock daily and saw that it was dropping slightly, what would you do?

Would you sell out or would you let your money ride? If you have a low tolerance for risk, you would want to sell out ,if you have a high tolerance, you would let your money ride and see what happens. This is not based on what your financial goals are. This tolerance is based on how you feel about your money!

Again, a good financial planner or stock broker should help you determine the level of risk that you are comfortable with, and help you choose your investments accordingly.

Your risk tolerance should be based on what your financial goals are and how you feel about the possibility of losing your money. It's all tied in together.