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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Singapore Stock Picks: Nam Cheong - BUY with a target price of SGD0.41). Upside Potential of 41 %)
Nam Cheong: SGD0.29 BUY (TP: SGD0.41)
Record Quarterly Profit And Strong Guidance
NCL posted a 3Q13 PATMI record of MYR58.7m (+86% y-o-y) – driven by its historic MYR1.7bn orderbook on hand, with shipbuilding gross margins surprising on the upside at 22.8% (2Q13: 17.3%). Thus, we increase our top-of-street FY13F/14F/15F estimates by 4/7/5% and raise our TP to SGD0.41 (from SGD0.39). One of our Top Picks, NCL combines 39% growth, 25% ROE, low 0.12x net gearing and healthy cashflow on a undemanding 7x FY14F P/E.
• Strongest-ever quarter with better things to come. NCL’s bottomline beat our MYR50m preview estimate by MYR8.7m, as its 23% shipbuilding margin was even higher than our top-of-street forecast. While we expect a normalisation to the 18-20% range, margins should continue to enjoy support from higher-margin platform supply vessels (PSVs) and work-boats or -barges, which form >50% of expected future vessel sales by value. Our S-curve revenue model indicates that strong topline growth in the coming quarters (on its record MYR1.7bn orderbook) will continue to drive earnings growth.
• A “happy” CNY dividend. Management remained coy on dividend guidance. We did detect a strong optimistic tone, with chairman Datuk Tiong Su Kouk expecting a “happy” dividend upon FY13 results being announced and a final dividend declaration during the Chinese New Year in CY14. Supported by its low 0.12x net gearing and healthy operational cash flow, we raise our payout ratio assumption to 25% from 20%, which translates into an attractive 3.1-4.3% yield from FY13F-15F.
• Targeting a market share increase. NCL now has a shallow-water offshore support vessel (OSV) global market share of about 12%, up 10% from a year ago. Over the next three years, management sees room to improve on this, which we interpret to mean that a healthy growth rate is sustainable over the next 3-5 years.
• Raise estimates, TP increased to SGD0.41. We raise our top-of-street FY13F/14F/15F estimates by 4/7/5% on the stronger margin outlook. This increases our TP to SGD0.41 (from SGD0.39), based on 10x blended FY13F/14F EPS. NCL remains one of our Top Picks for its 39% growth, 25% ROE, healthy cash flow and low 0.12x net gearing, for which investors are only paying 7x FY14F P/E. Maintain BUY
Singapore Stock Picks: Ezion Holdings BUY (Target Price SGD2.65)
Ezion Holdings: SGD2.11 BUY (TP: SGD2.65)
Strong Earnings From Bigger Fleet Of Service Rigs
Ezion reported solid 3Q13 net profit of USD38.2m (+137% y-o-y) thanks to higher revenue from service rigs and logistics support operations in Australia. We maintain our FY13-15F EPS estimates pending an update with management. The strong set of results reaffirmed our BUY rating on the stock. Our SGD2.65 TP is based on 16x blended FY13/14F EPS.
3Q13 earnings above expectations. 3Q13 net profit surged by +137% y-o-y to USD38.2m, thanks to higher revenue (+97% y-o-y) from the deployment of more service rigs and contributions from offshore logistics support services in Australia. Excluding a USD18m gain from disposal, 9M13 core net profit of USD103m (+127% y-o-y) accounted for 78% of our FY13 forecast. We believe the stronger-than-expected earnings were boosted by solid operations in Australia and lower interest expenses arising from interest capitalised for assets under construction.
Balance sheet gearing at 1.05x. Ezion ended 3Q13 with a gross debt of USD1bn and gross cash of USD209m. Cash generation was in line with our estimate - 9M13 net inflow from operating activities was at USD82.8m. We expect net gearing to stay at around 1.0x by end-FY13. Assuming no new capex, net gearing will fall to 0.86x in FY14F and 0.52x in FY15F. We believe the current gearing level is not aggressive, as the business is supported by long-term charter contracts.
USD1.9bn charter backlog. Ezion has won nine new charter contracts worth USD584m in 2013 and we estimate a total charter backlog of around USD1.9bn. More service rigs are expected to start deployment in 4Q13 and we see an upside risk to our FY13 EPS estimates. Based on its existing pipeline, Ezion’s fleet will grow to 29 units by FY15.
Maintain BUY with SGD2.65 TP. At our TP, the stock is valued at 11x FY14F P/E. We like Ezion for its strong earnings visibility and growth, and undemanding valuation of 9x FY14F P/E. We expect the robust demand for service rigs to translate into more new charters for the company.
Intraday Trading Results for Oct 2013 on Malaysia CPO
Dear readers,
Below are the trading results for Malaysia CPO for the month of October 2013.
For readers who would like to subscribe for the intraday trading signals, please drop me an email at dmgasia@gmail.com
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Malaysia CPO Intraday Trading Results for Sept 2013
Dear Readers,
Below are the snapshot of the Sept Intraday CPO trading results.
This results are based on total mechanical system with emotionless trading strategy.
We will buy(long) or sell(short) the underlying contract based on our proprietary trading signals provided by our systems.
Should you be interested to subscribe to our systems, the monthly subscription is MYR250.
For readers please drop me a message via my email at dmgasia@gmail.com Whatsapp users can message me thru my number at +60124808221 (Keith)
Here are the results for Sept Trading on the 3rd month contract.
Monday, September 30, 2013
Mini Asset Management with Target Returns of 5 percent per quarter.
Hi there,
I am showing you the results of my stock picks for the Malaysian equities with a targetted return of 5% or more for my customers who are willing to use my service to managed a small capital of $10K and above for their hard earn money. Basically my benchmark is to outperform the return provided by EPF(Employee Provident Fund) with an average return of only 6.3% for the last 5 years.
What i have done is i have selected those stocks that meet my stock pick growth criteria which obviously i do not reveal as this is my proprietary formula. Basically i will let you see the results since the stock picks in August the first till 1st Oct 2013.
The portfolio is rebalanced on every Quarter. I will publish my new stock picks on my next post.
If you are interested on no frills asset management/fund management with a small outlay of $10K, please drop me an email at dmgasia@gmail.com. There is no upfront fees. Just performance fee of 10% per annum based on profit.
So here it is with no Bull Shit Figures. All profit/loss shown are gross amount:-
Malaysia CPO Intraday Trading Results for August 2013
I am sharing with you my Intraday Trading Results on CPO Malaysia for the Month of August 2013. The intra day trading strategies are based on our proprietary subscription based trading signal provide by us for traders who would like to trade on intraday. To obtain my informations on the subscriptions, please drop me an email at dmgasia@gmail.com Here are the intraday trading results for August 2013.
Malaysia CPO Intraday Trading Results for July 2013
I am sharing with you my Intraday Trading Results on CPO Malaysia for the Month of July 2013. The intra day trading strategies are based on our proprietary subscription based trading signal provide by us for traders who would like to trade on intraday. To obtain my informations on the subscriptions, please drop me an email at dmgasia@gmail.com Here are the intraday trading results for July 2013.
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