Mini Asset Management results for 2013.

Dear readers, Some of you may have follow closely my portfolio that I started in August 2013. I have closed the position today and this is the final results. Those that has follow my stock pick would have made over 20% of their portfolio return. That is only 6 months work :) Hope to replicate the same success for my 2014 picks with benchmark return of over 20%. Here are the results:-

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Singapore Stock Picks: Osim International BUY TP(SGD2.60)

OSIM International: SGD2.39 BUY (TP: SGD2.60) Growth Momentum To Continue OSIM's 4Q13 PATAMI surged 22.1% y-o-y to SGD27.6m, on the back of strong revenue growth of 15.5% y-o-y. The PATAMI growth was boosted by a SGD42m FV gain at its subsidiary, TWG Tea. Business volume is expected to remain positive, supported by the region's demand for lifestyle products. We are keeping our BUY recommendation and DCF based TP of SGD2.60. Revenue growth likely to continue. OSIM's 4Q13 results met our expectations. The revenue growth was attributed to healthy take-up rates of its products, particularly uInfinity and uAngel, as well as contributions from TWG Tea (TWG), which became a subsidiary in 4Q13 after OSIM increased its stake in TWG to 53.7%. OSIM subsequently raised its stake further to 70%. We expect continued revenue growth for FY14-15, as OSIM is set to benefit from rising demand for its products given its ongoing marketing initiatives, as well as from increased y-o-y contributions from TWG. Outlook to remain healthy. OSIM has been sticking to its strategy of riding on celebrity appeal to reach out to customers in the region, which so far has paid off for the company. We believe this strategy would continue to work well, as OSIM has established itself as Asia's No.1 brand in well-being and healthy lifestyle products, supported by rising purchasing power of households in the region, especially China. Maintain BUY, SGD2.60 TP. OSIM declared a final dividend of SGD0.02/share, bringing the total dividend for FY13 to SGD0.06/share. We remain positive on OSIM as it is a proxy to the region's growing demand for lifestyle products. Its balance sheet

Singapore Stock Picks : Marco Polo Marine. BUY TP (SGD0.55)

Marco Polo Marine: SGD0.38 BUY (TP: SGD0.55) Awaiting The Catalyst At a glance, MPM’s 1QFY14 numbers look below expectations, with earnings down 28% y-o-y. However, adjusting profit from operations for comparability, core earnings grew 25%, dragged down only by finance costs from the SGD50m drawdown in medium term notes. We believe MPM will announce the deployment of these funds soon – providing a highly-visible near-term catalyst. Maintain BUY and SGD0.55 TP. Adjusted profit from operations grew 25%, but earnings down due to much higher finance costs. MPM’s 1QFY14 earnings are down 28% to SGD3.2m, but this was due to the SGD2m finance costs incurred vs SGD0.3m a year ago and SGD1.6m a quarter ago. Adjusting 1QFY13 associate income, profit from operations actually grew 25%, which we see as an encouraging sign of core profit growth. MPM likely to rapidly deploy the funds drawn. We do not believe that MPM will tap the medium term notes funds at 5.75% without having an immediate near-term deployment plan. As such, we think that a strong possibility exists for the company to announce, in the near-term, the acquisition of some new assets to drive growth. We previously flagged certain sub-sectors within the Indonesia’s offshore market that may soon become cabotage protected, which dovetails with MPM’s strategy. Trim FY14F earnings by 10%, but highlight upside potential. We are trimming FY14F/15F earnings by 10%/5%, as we factor in the higher finance costs. This does not take into account the contribution from the new asset(s). Hence, we will simultaneously highlight the potential for upward revision after any such announcement. Maintain BUY and SGD0.55 TP. We continue to like MPM for its: i) exposure to the cabotage protected Indonesian offshore support vessel (OSV) chartering segment, ii) outstanding technical capabilities, and iii) low valuations. We believe that the challenges faced by its tugs and barges fleet, and shipyard division have been priced in, with the stock trading at 0.75x P/BV. The asset(s) acquisition is the near-term key rerating catalyst. Source:DMG

Stock Pick for 2014.

Dear Readers, This are my stock pick for 2014. Target returns of 20% under my mini asset management services. I don't charge any fees for my services. Just follow my recommendations to make money. If you need other services that I provide, please drop me a telegram message at 01136084028(Keith) Here are the no bullshit stock picks for Jan 2014.

Wishing all my Chinese readers " Gong Xi Fatt Chai"

Singapore Stock Tips: MIDAS (Target Price SGD0.75)

Midas Holdings: SGD0.50 BUY (TP: SGD0.75) A Strong 3Q13 Midas’ 3Q13 PATAMI was at CNY16.4m vs a CNY6.1m loss a year ago. This was boosted by its associate NPRT booking CNY10.9m in earnings (vs a CNY7.0m loss in 3Q12). Operating profit was lower y-o-y, dragged down by lower gross margins and higher operating costs. Nonetheless, the company remains in a good position to secure more orders over the next few quarters. Maintain BUY with a TP of SGD0.75. • Revenue grows but gross profit is lower. Midas’ 3Q13 revenue surged 48.5% y-o-y to CNY301.0m, as utilisation of its production lines continued to improve (3Q13: 55%, 2Q13: 50%). However, as it took on more low-margin jobs, the gross margin dipped to 20.8% (2Q13: 22.5%; 3Q12: 31.5%). Going forward, we expect profitability to improve as more high-speed train orders, which command higher margins, are secured. • Order flow is improving. The China Railway Corporation recently released a second tender for train cars. China CSR Corp (1766 HK, NR) and China CNR Co (601299 CH, NR) secured the bulk of the first tender’s orders a few months ago. The results of the second tender are expected to be announced in Dec 2013, with China CSR and China CNR being the likely winners again. As both companies are major customers of Midas, it is in a good position to secure more orders. This is expected to boost its current orderbook of CNY900m, with deliveries scheduled for 2014 and 2015. In the meantime, its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT)’s orderbook is currently at CNY8.5bn. • Higher revenue estimates, but at lower gross margin assumptions. Midas’ FY13 PATAMI is expected to be boosted by NPRT’s strong performance this year. NPRT’s 3Q13 performance has already exceeded our FY13F numbers. We raise our revenue estimates after taking into account the expected continued improvement in Midas’ capacity utilisation. However, we lower our gross margin assumption for FY13 and factor in higher operating expenses, which results in our PATAMI estimate of CNY32.9m for the period (from CNY80m). FY14 is expected to be stronger, as gross margins improve along with higher revenue and strong contributions from NPRT. Maintain BUY

Singapore Stock Picks: Nam Cheong - BUY with a target price of SGD0.41). Upside Potential of 41 %)

Nam Cheong: SGD0.29 BUY (TP: SGD0.41) Record Quarterly Profit And Strong Guidance NCL posted a 3Q13 PATMI record of MYR58.7m (+86% y-o-y) – driven by its historic MYR1.7bn orderbook on hand, with shipbuilding gross margins surprising on the upside at 22.8% (2Q13: 17.3%). Thus, we increase our top-of-street FY13F/14F/15F estimates by 4/7/5% and raise our TP to SGD0.41 (from SGD0.39). One of our Top Picks, NCL combines 39% growth, 25% ROE, low 0.12x net gearing and healthy cashflow on a undemanding 7x FY14F P/E. • Strongest-ever quarter with better things to come. NCL’s bottomline beat our MYR50m preview estimate by MYR8.7m, as its 23% shipbuilding margin was even higher than our top-of-street forecast. While we expect a normalisation to the 18-20% range, margins should continue to enjoy support from higher-margin platform supply vessels (PSVs) and work-boats or -barges, which form >50% of expected future vessel sales by value. Our S-curve revenue model indicates that strong topline growth in the coming quarters (on its record MYR1.7bn orderbook) will continue to drive earnings growth. • A “happy” CNY dividend. Management remained coy on dividend guidance. We did detect a strong optimistic tone, with chairman Datuk Tiong Su Kouk expecting a “happy” dividend upon FY13 results being announced and a final dividend declaration during the Chinese New Year in CY14. Supported by its low 0.12x net gearing and healthy operational cash flow, we raise our payout ratio assumption to 25% from 20%, which translates into an attractive 3.1-4.3% yield from FY13F-15F. • Targeting a market share increase. NCL now has a shallow-water offshore support vessel (OSV) global market share of about 12%, up 10% from a year ago. Over the next three years, management sees room to improve on this, which we interpret to mean that a healthy growth rate is sustainable over the next 3-5 years. • Raise estimates, TP increased to SGD0.41. We raise our top-of-street FY13F/14F/15F estimates by 4/7/5% on the stronger margin outlook. This increases our TP to SGD0.41 (from SGD0.39), based on 10x blended FY13F/14F EPS. NCL remains one of our Top Picks for its 39% growth, 25% ROE, healthy cash flow and low 0.12x net gearing, for which investors are only paying 7x FY14F P/E. Maintain BUY

Singapore Stock Picks: Ezion Holdings BUY (Target Price SGD2.65)

Ezion Holdings: SGD2.11 BUY (TP: SGD2.65) Strong Earnings From Bigger Fleet Of Service Rigs Ezion reported solid 3Q13 net profit of USD38.2m (+137% y-o-y) thanks to higher revenue from service rigs and logistics support operations in Australia. We maintain our FY13-15F EPS estimates pending an update with management. The strong set of results reaffirmed our BUY rating on the stock. Our SGD2.65 TP is based on 16x blended FY13/14F EPS. 3Q13 earnings above expectations. 3Q13 net profit surged by +137% y-o-y to USD38.2m, thanks to higher revenue (+97% y-o-y) from the deployment of more service rigs and contributions from offshore logistics support services in Australia. Excluding a USD18m gain from disposal, 9M13 core net profit of USD103m (+127% y-o-y) accounted for 78% of our FY13 forecast. We believe the stronger-than-expected earnings were boosted by solid operations in Australia and lower interest expenses arising from interest capitalised for assets under construction. Balance sheet gearing at 1.05x. Ezion ended 3Q13 with a gross debt of USD1bn and gross cash of USD209m. Cash generation was in line with our estimate - 9M13 net inflow from operating activities was at USD82.8m. We expect net gearing to stay at around 1.0x by end-FY13. Assuming no new capex, net gearing will fall to 0.86x in FY14F and 0.52x in FY15F. We believe the current gearing level is not aggressive, as the business is supported by long-term charter contracts. USD1.9bn charter backlog. Ezion has won nine new charter contracts worth USD584m in 2013 and we estimate a total charter backlog of around USD1.9bn. More service rigs are expected to start deployment in 4Q13 and we see an upside risk to our FY13 EPS estimates. Based on its existing pipeline, Ezion’s fleet will grow to 29 units by FY15. Maintain BUY with SGD2.65 TP. At our TP, the stock is valued at 11x FY14F P/E. We like Ezion for its strong earnings visibility and growth, and undemanding valuation of 9x FY14F P/E. We expect the robust demand for service rigs to translate into more new charters for the company.